HEZBOLLAH & SYRIA

HEZBOLLAH & SYRIA

When I started building a private intelligence network in the late 70’s there were no computers, internet, cell phones or faxes. We had to deal with cable’s or couriers or the slow mail. Most of our resource came from agents recruited in the local counties and from government or law enforcement contacts we had.

Over head satellite imagery was most in government hands and in the forming stages. A lot has changed with the internet and instant communication and the growth of private information companies that are doing a great job at gathering, analyzing and dissimulating current information.

I can tell you Stratfor is at the forefront and probably the most detailed with their information on what is going on in the world. Today they have not only Humint intelligence but also the Satellite imagery which is now available. They are also effective at their analyst. I have found Stratfor to be a necessary asset for me to use along with my other resources to effective benefit our clients. You will find their link on this posting and part of my post about Hezbollah in Syria came from their work.

I know it has been said, discussed and debated trying to find out the motives of the current administration in Washington on their approach to the world. It is like we have put the country on “auto pilot” as a plane pilot might then praying for a miracle that it might land itself before it runs out of fuel. We as a country will soon run out of fuel if the pilot of this country doesn’t wake up to fact we are heading for a crash. A crash unlike any other in history.

As this administration has stepped back from the world, not just stepped back but is giving aid to our enemies, our enemies are moving full speed ahead. The hands off policy or leading from behind, as the President likes to say, has lead to full speed ahead for Iran and others to head the world to their dream of a world Islamic government.

One of the sharpest tools the Iranian’s have in its arsenal is Hezbollah. In my early days in Israel and Lebanon it was the PLO and as they faded Hezbollah was birthed and has become a major threat to not only countries in the Middle East but around the world. Hezbollah had continued to grow, establish bases and build bases as the U.S. has set on the side lines hoping the Auto Pilot works.

This imagery is from Stratfor and the assessment is also Stratfor.

“<a href=”https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/hezbollahs-shot-permanency-syria”>Hezbollah’s Shot at Permanency in Syria</a> is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

 

 

 

 

Like other foreign and domestic actors, Hezbollah has seized on the Syrian civil war to improve its position in the country and the surrounding region. Stratfor has collected information from diplomatic sources and from sources close to Hezbollah to monitor and track the establishment of Hezbollah bases in Syria. According to those reports, Hezbollah’s attempts to expand and solidify its control in Syria will only increase in the future. Now, satellite imagery adds to these predictions by enabling us to take a closer look at a Hezbollah base near the Syrian town of Qusair, where Hezbollah has built up significant defensive positions since conquering the area in June 2013.

The base near Qusair, like other anticipated defensive positions in Syria, is part of Hezbollah’s future strategy in the country. The base will play a significant role in protecting the militant group, and Lebanon as a whole, from the threats it may face if Syrian President Bashar al Assad is deposed. Alongside the base, Hezbollah has focused on securing the Lebanese border, building up a large earthen berm on the stretch of the border near Qusair. The group has also cleared the area around the base to enable it to better observe and defend the area along the Syrian side of the border. Moreover, sources report that Hezbollah has dug tunnels from the base back to Lebanon.

Along with its patron Iran, Hezbollah recognizes that Syria’s war is an opportunity to establish a strong position near the country’s border with Lebanon. According to one source close to Hezbollah, the group intends to stockpile artillery weapons, such as Katyusha rockets, mortars and howitzers, at the base near Qusair. It also plans to move some of its approximately 60 T-72 main battle tanks there. Additionally, sources said there are as many as four separate munitions factories at the base.

Sources also connect the base and other future installations to Hezbollah’s plan to maintain a permanent presence of 3,000 fighters in Syria, even after it withdraws from the fighting there. The bases could end up hosting a significant portion of the fighters. At the same time, the bases will provide a location for Iranian involvement and military presence in Syria. According to an Iranian diplomatic source, ranking officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) frequently inspect the positions near Qusair, treating the base as an Iranian asset. The position could also serve as a location for interaction and training between IRGC and Hezbollah operatives.

The presence of Iranian officers suggests another reason for Hezbollah to build bases in Syria. Sources close to the group have said there are long-range missiles at Qusair. Although satellite imagery does not confirm this, the sources have referred specifically to the presence of different types of Iranian ballistic missiles, including the Shabab-1, Shahab-2 and Fateh-110. Any of these missiles could be used to strike Israel, and Hezbollah has previously been suspected of having them in its arsenal. While these missiles could prove crucial in the event of a large-scale Israeli ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, they are not beyond the reach of the Israeli air force. Israel has already struck Hezbollah arms stockpiles in Syria on several occasions, and imagery does not show underground facilities at the base capable of protecting this weaponry.

Top of Form

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/hezbollahs-shot-permanency-syria

I believe the ability of Iran is much underestimated and as we continue on auto pilot they are driving down deep foundations across the Middle East. Not only are they setting up bases they are stock piling weapons, tanks, missiles and setting up munitions factories as well as fortifying their defenses.

As we track the activities it should be a warning sign to any person concerned about having a free world for all of us to enjoy.

Another sobering thought is the lack of knowledge that so many in our country have about the world and even our own country. Most leaders of not only countries but company understand to be a successful leader you need superior knowledge on what is going on around you.

As you watch some of the shows where they take to the streets and interview people about their knowledge of basic history, or lack of it, of our country it is sobering. But more alarming is talking to those who support candidates on the left who support free things for everyone and when you ask them who will pay for it they respond the government. When you check the history of countries that went from freedom to dictator it started with promising the citizens everything free. It is time we wake up.

Until next keep looking for Knowledge and be Safe.

Phil

LEBANON CAUGHT IN SAUDI-IRANIAN POLITICAL CROSSFIRE

LEBANON CAUGHT IN SAUDI-IRANIAN POLITICAL CROSSFIRE

 

 

 

 

searchBeirut in the 60’s THE PARIS OF THE EAST

As I look at the makeup of the Middle East and the importance of Lebanon, in the current struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran, I was reflecting on how Lebanon became the” whipping boy” for the terrorist groups.

This started back in the 60’s and progressed in the 70’s with the expansion of the PLO in Southern Lebanon. Lebanon was a Christian population for the most part and as the PLO started attacking Israel to force a home land the Arab nations around them didn’t want them based out of their countries. Lebanon was chosen to push the PLO into as they didn’t have a strong military and was unable to stop the influx of the PLO and the camps they established.

As the PLO started shelling Israel from the South of Lebanon of course Israel struck back with Lebanon taking punishment from the PLO actions. At the same time the PLO was attacking and forcing the Christians who were the majority in the south of Lebanon to flee or be killed. The Lebanon which had been called the Paris of the Middle East was headed for civil war which continues today with different players.

As the PLO disappeared it was replaced with Hezbollah backed by Iran which is more powerful and dangerous then the PLO. Iran has a bigger plan to use Hezbollah to attack and in their plan destroy Israel. So Lebanon still lies at the center of the conflict with Hezbollah a part of the government and Syria to the north and Hezbollah supporting the government in Syria.

Lebanon’s situation has worsened by Saudi Arabia with drawing military and financial assistance due to the concern that the equipment they pay for would wind up with Hezbollah. What is ahead?

Lebanon caught in Saudi-Iranian political crossfire.

The decision of the Gulf Arab states to get tougher with Hezbollah threatens to re-ignite a new round of conflict

Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Hezbollah have become the centre of international attention

On March 2, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, of which Saudi Arabia is a member, designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization, driving a deeper wedge between the Sunni countries and the Shi’ite movement that has long been an instrument of Iran.

Just days ago, the Saudis and some of their friends from the Gulf States urged their citizens not to travel to Lebanon.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) declared such trips “illegal” and downgraded its diplomatic mission to the country.

The latest move from the Saudis and their friends stemmed from the fallout of the Syrian conflict that has pitted Saudi Arabia against Iran, Hezbollah’s chief patron.

As for Saudi Arabia’s past “flexibility” towards the situation in Lebanon, the approach enabled Riyadh to mediate and broker the1989 Taif Agreement that paved the way to end the bloody Lebanese Civil War.

Today, it appears that the Saudis favor confrontation over accommodation as backchannel deals and discreet negotiation make way for microphone and check book diplomacy. The big concern is the Saudi cash and military help will end up in the hands of Hezbollah and build Iran’s influence even more.

Hezbollah by force has weaved its way into the Lebanese government and due to their backing from Iran they wield power over what happens and their actions in Syria are not necessarily good for Lebanon. But because of the power it wields, politically and as an armed entity, political groups in Lebanon will have to continue to engage the Shi’ite outfit to prevent further strife.

All of this led to closer ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey by both having the same end game in Syria, the removal of Bashar Assad. They want to see a Sunni led government with ties to them and they want to break the hold Iran has on Syria.

Turkey has made overtures to Israel to try and reestablish better relations but Israel is not anxious to come to Turkeys aid with the past years of Turkey conduct toward Israel

Oddly enough, the Turkish president finds himself in a position analogous to Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi, who is at war with the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement which enjoys Obama’s support.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has his own dilemmas. Struggling to keep his balance while walking a tight rope on the Syrian situation between Israel’s longstanding ties with Washington and handling the Russian tiger lurking next door, he is in no hurry to welcome Erdogan’s determined overtures for the resumption of normal relations.
Turkey is in trouble with both major world powers and, after living for five years under hostile abuse from Ankara, Israel does not owe Erdogan a helping hand for pulling  him out of the mess.

Things change swiftly on the world stage and the American presidential race has stirred up comments from many on the world’s stage as to what a new president might mean for them.

A lot to watch and pay attention to. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be the ones to watch as the days unfold.

Until next time be safe:       Phil

 

IS SAUDI ARABIA & TURKEY GETTING READY TO INVADE SYRIA?

IS SAUDI ARABIA & TURKEY GETTING READY TO INVADE SYRIA?

Could we be on the brink of WORLD WAR 3 or is this just Saudi and Turkey letting the world, particular the United States know, they don’t like how the U.S. is operating in the middle east. Is the 350,000 soldiers, of over 20 nations, on the northern border of Saudi  Arabia preparation for an invasion or a show of force?

 

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Prince Mohammad and his Generals on Northern Front:

350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters are massing in northern Saudi Arabia for a military exercise that is being called “Northern Thunder”. 

Having spent a lot of time on the ground in the Middle East, starting in the middle 70’s and the Arabian Gulf starting in 2002, I would have been able to use the past practices to give a pretty accurate estimate of what the intentions might be with Northern Thunder.  Had this been prior to the current administration in Saudi Arabia, and for that matter in the United States, my assessment would have been “Saber Rattling” but things have changed in the Gulf.

With King Salman, his new policies and the appointment of his son Prince Mohammad as Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince you could say there is a New Sheriff in town.

The policies of the old Saudi Arabia is gone which was go slow and don’t get involved in conflicts look to the United States and let them do the fighting. I believe many things have changed to cause this new posture by Saudi and the least is not the United States pull back from global leadership. That pull back has been a big factor in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states losing faith and trust in the U.S. to be there to protect them so they need to prepare to protect themselves.

I have seen several signs of this and some from being on the ground in the region and others watching events. One big sign is the increased defense spending up over 3 times what it was and moving forward with building a defense industry in Saudi. Another big one is the United States movement toward Iran and the U.S. President making a very bad deal with Iran. This was the final straw for Saudi and with the new King and his son the young Mohammad the tactics changed and the gloves came off. With what we have seen in Yemen we cannot predict what the Saudi defense Minister might do.

A few years ago I would have said Northern Thunder is just an exercise but with current events and the young Defense Minister who no one really knows who he is or what he might do all bets are off.

Everyone is worried not the least Russia for if Northern Thunder should roll into Syria with a lightening move to sweep to Damascus and take out Bashar it will be war. Russia has made it clear that would be an act of war that they would have to defend Syria and then there is China who is moving in. China would more than likely come down on the side of Iran and Syria and we have Israel on the side line to the south.

This whole region is so complex it is hard to wrap your head around all of the possibilities. There is the big question where would the United States stand with the current President which is resistant to military force.

According to the official announcement, forces are being contributed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia and several other nations.  This exercise will reportedly last for 18 days, and during that time the airspace over northern Saudi Arabia will be closed to air traffic.  This will be the largest military exercise in the history of the region, and it comes amid rumors that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are preparing for a massive ground invasion of Syria.

(SPECULATION BY MANY)

If you were going to gather forces for an invasion, this is precisely how you would do it.  Governments never come out and publicly admit that forces are moving into position for an invasion ahead of time, so “military exercises” are a common excuse that gets used for this sort of thing.

If these exercises are actually being used as an excuse to mass forces near the northern Saudi border, then we should expect an invasion to begin within the next couple of weeks.  If it happens, we should expect to see the Saudi coalition storm through western Iraq and into Syria from the south, and it is likely that Turkey will come in from the north.

The goal would be to take out the Assad regime before Russia, Iran and Hezbollah could react.  For the past couple of years, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have been funding the insurgency in Syria, and they were counting on those insurgents to be able to take down the Assad regime by themselves.

But then Russia, Iran and Hezbollah stepped forward to assist the Assad regime.  Russian air support completely turned the tide of the war, and now the Sunni insurgents are on the brink of losing.

Aleppo was once the largest city in Syria, and Sunni insurgents have controlled it since 2012.  But now relentless Russian airstrikes have made it possible for Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah ground forces to surround the city, and it is about to fall back into the hands of the Syrian government. If this happens, the war will essentially be over.

 

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have invested massive amounts of time, money and effort into overthrowing Assad, and they aren’t about to walk away now.

If the war was to end right at this moment, a weakened Assad regime would remain in power, and Iran and Hezbollah would be the dominant powers in the country for years to come.  And once Assad died, it would be inevitable that Iran and Hezbollah would attempt to transform Syria into a full-blown Shiite nation.  This is something that Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to avoid at all costs.

But if Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies go in, they run the risk of a full-blown war with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.  Just consider some of the comments that we have seen in recent days.

Reacting to a potential troop deployment, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said Saturday, “Let no one think they can attack Syria or violate its sovereignty because I assure you any aggressor will return to their country in a wooden coffin.”

Pavel Krasheninnikov, a deputy of Russia’s State Duma, has warned Saudi Arabia that any military ground operation in Syria without Damascus’ consent would amount to a declaration of war, Press TV reported.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:

“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.

Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.

And in addition to all of the forces massing in northern Saudi Arabia it is being reported that the Saudis have sent troops and aircraft to a military base in Turkey…

The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, confirmed the deployment in a statement to the Yeni Safak newspaper on Saturday, days before a temporary ceasefire is due to come into force.

The hostility between Turkey and the Kurds goes back a long, long way.  Turkey has been shelling the Kurds inside of Syria even though the Syrian Kurds are not threatening Turkey in any way right now, but Turkey is using the instability in the region as an excuse to lob artillery shells at a hated enemy.

Needless to say, the Russians are quite alarmed by all of this.

In fact, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is warning about what could happen.

Quote, “In the wake of Saudi Arabia’s proposal to send in ground troops on Thursday, the Russian Prime Minister claimed the move could spark a world war. 

“A ground operation draws everyone taking part in it into a war,” he told theHandelsblatt newspaper.

“The Americans and our Arab partners must consider whether or not they want a permanent war.”

If Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies launch an invasion and make a mad dash to take out the Assad regime in Damascus, the Russians will inevitably respond.

And if tactical nuclear weapons are necessary to keep the invading forces out of Damascus, the Russians will not be shy about using them.

If Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies are going to conduct an invasion of Syria, the most likely time for this to happen will be by the end of this month during these military exercises.

(End of Speculation by many)

Whatever the reason for the military exercises and troop built up the region is a “powder keg” set to explode with all the world’s major powers in the game.  My sources on the ground who are well connected say this is a time where they can’t make a good prediction for you can not use the past to predict the present or future.

Keep alert and be prepared.

Until next time be safe;

Phil

CHINA GOES PUBLIC WITH MIDDLE EAST INTENTIONS

CHINA GOES PUBLIC WITH MIDDLE EAST INTENTIONS

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China President 

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China’s Silk Road outline: 

CHINA INTENTIONS IN MIDDLE EAST:

Those that watch world events to try and discern what might be ahead for different parts of the world have predicted China at some point moving on its desire to have a major foot print and Military presence in the Middle East. They quietly started their road project years ago which will connect China to the Middle East and I suspect if you talk to the vast majority of people, they are not aware of the road being built.

It appears China feels the time has come to  go public with its desire to have a say in what is going on in the Middle East and I don’t think it is by chance this is in direct response to the U.S. backing away from its global leadership’s role.

With the U.S global leadership gone weakness goes with that both real and perceived. This gives entrance to the rogue powers that see the opportunity to move into the vacuum before the U.S. elects a strong leader again.

The following statement points to the broad agenda that China has and we should be worried. For on this road military equipment and troops can stream into the Middle East which is already crowed. When you look at China’s history and statements one can be almost certain that Israel will not be a winner in having China’s support if push comes to shove.

“China is deepening economic engagements with Iran just a week after international sanctions were lifted against the country but the closer ties risk infuriating Saudi Arabia, the mainland’s largest oil supplier in the Middle East, analysts say.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first international leader to head to Iran after the trade restrictions were removed, capped his visit to Tehran with 17 agreements for cooperation in areas including energy, trade, and industry, reported Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency.

During Xi’s visit, the two countries also agreed to increase bilateral trade more than 10-fold to $600 billion in the next decade as China pursues its One Belt One Road project, an ambitious network of road, rail and port routes that will connect China to Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.”

 Over the past decade, China has been actively building “The New Silk Road” that would run from China’s coastline to Europe, through Central Asia and Iran. Train and road networks have been built across northern Iran to link Afghanistan with Turkey.

It was this fear of Western allies in the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait, such as Singapore, that led China to develop ports in Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu and in Pakistan’s Gwadar.

These ports circumvent the bottlenecks in South-East Asia. The New Silk Road will bypass the Suez Canal.

It would be good if all of us watch the signs of what is going on in the Middle East and do all we can to help ensure that our interest and that of Israel is protected. In the coming days I will be sharing some future activities we will be involved in, in the Middle East which will give us a front row seat to watch the action.

Until Next Time Be Safe.

Phil

CHINA GOES PUBLIC WITH MIDDLE EAST INTENTIONS

CHINA MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST: SHOULD WE BE WORRIED

 

 

 

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PRESIDENT Xi of CHINA

If the following message from China about their intentions in the Middle East doesn’t send chills up our spine then we should spend some time looking at History and what the early record of our world from the bible says about the end times and China’s part in it.

The Chinese government has published an official “Arab Policy Paper” on the cusp of President Xi Jinping’s upcoming Mideast world tour, stopping in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran, specifying economic goals China has in the region and emphasizing that China is not an interloper in the region.

The extensive paper itself is riddled with vague positive language, heralding “win-win negotiations” and “strategic cooperative relations of comprehensive cooperation and common development.” It makes clear, however, that Beijing is intent on ensuring that a growing population of the Arab world learns Mandarin and does business with Chinese corporations.

“Arab countries as a whole have become China’s biggest supplier of crude oil and the 7th biggest trading partner,” the paper notes, arguing that China has traded with the Middle East for millennia and “both sides have always respected and treated each other as equals and remained brothers, friends and partners no matter what happens on the world arena.” To that end, China reasserts its support for the creation of a Palestinian state and “political solution to regional hot spot issues.” (Remember China is no friend of Israel.)

Nowhere in the paper does the Chinese government mention the Syrian civil war, something of a surprise following a string of increasingly vocal editorials in state publications urging the international community give China a more prominent role in mediating the conflict between dictator Bashar al-Assad, Syrian rebel groups, and the Islamic State terrorist organization, among others. “China is willing to play a constructive role in pushing for a political solution for the Syrian crisis…China’s recent invitations for a Syrian government representative and opposition party representative for talks show not only China’s willingness to promote peace talks and a resolution of the crisis, but also China’s commitment to its responsibilities as a major power, a People’s Dailyarticle argued in December. China has since hosted both representatives of the Syrian government and the anti-Assad coalition.

Syria’s shadow looms over much of the policy paper, however. In it, the Chinese government vows to expand its military presence in the region, (This is note worthy) suggesting that China may finally be willing to play a more active role in the war against the Islamic State:

We will deepen China-Arab military cooperation and exchange. We will strengthen exchange of visits of military officials, expand military personnel exchange, deepen cooperation on weapons, equipment and various specialized technologies, and carry out joint military exercises.

China also promises to train Arab world soldiers “to jointly address the threat of international and regional terrorism.”

The paper also suggests China will significantly expand trade in the region, and seeks to spread Chinese language and culture. “We will strengthen education of the Chinese language in Arab countries, and support training programs of Chinese language teachers in Arab countries,” the paper promises, as well as urging intercultural film festivals and promising to translate hit Chinese television shows into Arabic.

“There has long been criticisms from the West that China is an outsider or a “free rider” in Middle East issues. Those critics may have forgotten that in a globalized era when Middle East issues such as the Islamic State and the refugee crisis spill over to other parts of the world, China, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has no reason to put aside the strategic significance of the Middle East,” an editorial announcing the paper’s publication in state news outlet Xinhua boasts.

China has significant reason for concern regarding the Islamic State. The group has begun actively recruiting in China, publishing a nasheed, or jihad song, in Mandarin in December. The Chinese government claims hundreds of ethnic Uighurs from western China, who are a Muslim ethnic group, have joined ISIS. The fact that Uighurs do not speak Mandarin, but the Muslim ethnic Hui population does, suggests that ISIS has its eye on much more than China’s Uighur regions. Islamic State propaganda videos have also demanded jizya, or a punitive infidel tax, from Beijing, and the group boasted of beheading a Chinese national, Fan Jinghui, in December.

President Xi will first visit Saudi Arabia, then meet with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo. He will end his regional visit in Tehran next week. Chinese publications have mentioned Xi’s visit to Iran in the same context as China’s pivot to the “Arab” world, despite Iran being a Persian, not Arab, country. The Chinese government is claiming credit for helping Iran cement its nuclear deal with the West this summer, however, as well as claiming it has a role in repairing the extremely damaged diplomatic relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

This move by China, like Russia into Syria, has been a long time desire but they have been held at bay by a strong America with strong decisive leaders, which has been lacking the last 7 years. They see now is the time to move for they have a year before, hopefully, we will have a strong Commander In Chief who will start the work rebuild American respect around the world.

When I am asked how I see the future of the Middle East, world and our future I point to  watching the “Signs of the Times” to attempt to keep abreast of what the future might bring. None of us know the future but we can wisely discern what is going on and how it fits with prophecy to give us a glimpse into the events the future will bring.

There is much to watch right now as China goes into slow down, the oil price continues to drop and the American stock market slides. All of these creates fear for the future and an opening for all the bad actors to make moves, like Russia, China and ISIS has, to gain more power on the world stage. Every one of these new events going on remind us how important our elections is this fall.

Keep informed, be vigilant and let your voice be heard when miss-information from the left distorts truth and fact.

Until next time be safe.

Phil

 

GUN BAND: STOP CRIME ‘THE MYTH’

GUN BAND: STOP CRIME ‘THE MYTH’

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GUN VIOLENCE AND GUN BANS

I have watched with interest the moves to ban the private ownership of handguns and ultimately of all guns over the last 30 years. I have noted that these moves come from the left and that is a fact not a political statement, and have wondered why. I recently was talking to a friend about the President’s current push in the aftermath of the San Bernardino terrorist attack and a light bulb came on in my head.

First I am a supporter of gun safety and having rules to keep guns from criminals and the mentally unstable. I also acknowledge that many on the left who voice support for the calls to ban guns are not doing so with a motive to change our form of government, but are just listening to those who lead their party and are not themselves doing the research which tears holes in the lefts reasoning or arguments on the banning of guns.

My Light Bulb:

My thoughts went back to the old Soviet Union and its leaders of the 60’s and 70’s and their view on how to take over America. In my early days in the Intelligence World information and statements by the Soviet Union’s leaders showed how they thought they could take over America. Their statements were, we will take America over without firing a shot, we will bring them down from within. Their agenda was broad.

At the top of the agenda was the thinking, which came from informants ie. Spies, that first America must be disarmed. As long as the Second Amendment was in force it would never  happen, armed citizens with the ability to protect themselves could never be over thrown either from within or without. This agenda was coming from the left who were Socialist, Marxist, communist ect  those who supported a government ran by a few rather then the people.

Just think for a minute about the history of the gun ban movement. What is the roots of the movement and what is the movements  leaders  political view of government. If we trace the leaders on the left, who identify with the democratic party, who have kept the Soviet Unions thinking alive it has been those who support a socialist or government ran by a few.

The political thinking, training and actions of the current administration don’t leave to the imagination what their political view is and that government control should be in the hands of a few. Think about the reasons for wanting to take away the right for citizens to own guns. To many guns kill people, you might have your gun taken from you, you don’t know how to use one and the biggest of all lies is that where there is more guns it does not deter crime. That Myth is belied by all the facts not only by the crime reports but by former criminals who say they avoid places where the citizens had concealed carry permits and higher gun ownership.

It is unthinkable for an administration to high jack the fight against terrorist or illegal immigration to promote a political agenda, which is to disarm American citizens. Or to blame the gun for the illegal who shot Katie Steinle in San Francisco and not the corrupt polices of San Francisco and the administration which allows it to continue.

In discussions with many of my democratic friends when they are pressed for why they support the moves to take away our 2nd amendment rights they flounder around with their reasons. In the end they admit they haven’t done any research but are listening to the party leaders.  That kind of disengagement by members of either party is a death quell for our American way of life.

I submit to you that the administrations move to divert every violent act as being the problem of too many guns is not their concern about saving lives but about changing our way of life.  If we go back to a pre Hitler Germany you would find an armed Germany. One of the first things Hitler did was to take way the guns from the citizens and we know the results.

We can’t say we were not told for many thousands across this nation are raising the warning. Now it is up to us will we act as Americans not Republicans, Democratic or Independents and stand up even to our own party and say NEVER NO NEVER WILL WE ALLOW OUR 2ND AMENDMENT TO BE DESTROYED.

Let the cry that came from the brave Americans on United Flight 93 over Pennsylvania, LETS ROLL, ring from us as we take on those who like the terrorist on flight 93 want to destroy our way of life.

A lot more could be said on the background of the anti-gun movement I hope this gets you to thinking, lets spread the word.

Until Nest Time: Be Safe

Phil

 

DATE LINE: THE RISE OF ISLAMISM

DATE LINE: THE RISE OF ISLAMISM

DATE LINE: SAN BERNADINO, ISIS IS NOT CONTAINED!!

I have felt the tragedy personally as I started my law enforcement career with the San Bernadino Sheriff’s department and know the area well. It is sad to see so many of our political leaders still trying to deny that this is a Radical Islamic Terrorist Attack. The terrorist carrying out this attack made it clear who they were supporting.

I have been asked every day many times, and this morning in the bank from my manager, what can we do at this late date to stop the attacks here. Over the last days I have thought a lot about the conversations I have had with many of my Muslim friends around the world about this very question.

It has become clear to me that the reason the vast majority of Muslims who are against violence don’t come out against it is they don’t really understand their religion. One of the statements I have heard from my Muslim friends is that when they go to their Imam and ask questions they are told not to worry about it and follow what they are told. So when many hear the radical Imam preaching Jihad they believe that is what their religion is about.  For me this is the main reason most don’t condemn the violence around their religion the second is many moderate leaders have been threaten or killed.

I have watched the move from sanity to insanity, over the last 10 years or more, and the subtle way it has been accomplished. There is not one simple reason or a way to set down in a few minutes and see the whole picture of what is behind the attempt to change our way of life.

It to me is more like the brain washing of an occult where they little by little feed deception and half truths  into the subjects and over time they are believers. I also believe those that are attempting to change our way of life have different reasons they all aren’t radical “Islamism” promoters. Some are way out on the left of center who want a socialist society where the government decides everything we do and controls what we make. Whatever the motives driving those who want to change America it makes we people the slaves of government.

For now those who want a world “Islamism” government have taken center stage and is the problem that must be hit head on with everything we have.  The effort to turn around the damage done for the last 7 years will not be easy or fast. We must understand the problem and what is behind it.

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To help us understand more about the Muslim faith  I recommend everyone taking time to read about Dr. Zuhdi Jasser, this is a voice that needs to get to every American. He is a practicing Muslim of Syrian decent, a citizen and military veteran. He exposes the reasons why moderate voices aren’t coming forth to denounce the radicals. He is a voice of reason and understanding who is standing against the groups who want to see a religious controlled government. He also denounces those who want to destroy Israel and exposes the radical reasons why they do. (Goggle his name)

Dr, Jasser believes in the separation of mosque and state and spoken against the ideology of “political Islam” or Islamism. He also says “Anti-Semitism” is a growing threat to all faiths. Jasser says that all Muslim leaders need to oppose a ‘culture of separation’ in the Muslim community. This is exactly what happened in Europe and was one of the reasons the Paris attacks were easily hidden from authorities.

After attending Phoenix- area mosque for several years, he became disappointed that politics was being discussed from the mosques pulpits and was especially concerned about sermons that criticized the U.S. government policies and portrayed Muslims as victims.

There is so much more that Dr, Jasser has to say that is so critical to understanding the battle before us and how to fight it. He has been on the T.V. shows and testified before congress and his voice needs to be heard by every American.

In almost every conversation I have  with people about terrorism the topic gets around to the actions or inaction of our president. I get asked why do I think he is so soft on Islamic terrorism and won’t call it for what it is. I heard someone today point out that is reality the president is becoming an apologist for Islam and that is in violation of our constitution.  Our government is not suppose to favor or support one religion over another.

What do we think would be going on if this were Christians, Jews or any other terrorist group waging war in the name of their religion? The president and the press would be condemning, calling it for what it was and waging war on them from every side. I am reminded of Muslim friends out in the Arab world who have told me, your president has a leaning toward the Muslim faith we can see it in his actions.

I am being asked every week how can I help get the truth out?  One way we can help make a difference is to get the word out to our friends, neighbors and elected officials to listen to Dr Jasser and get involved. Let our elected officials and government leaders know they need to be educated by someone who really knows and is balanced and understands that radical Islam or Sharia law is not compatible with our American Constitution .

As I shared in my last post our future freedom is up to we the people being heard and directing our politicians and sharing about Dr. Jasser is one way to do that.  Together we can make a difference.

God bless you and may God Bless these United States of America.

Until next time be safe.

Phil

 

 

 

DATE LINE: WHAT CAN I DO TO STOP TERRORISM

DATE LINE: WHAT CAN I DO TO STOP TERRORISM

 

We just got the word from President Obama. Climate change is a higher priority then terrorism. Really?

 

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WHAT IS NEXT FOR THE WORLD:

Since my past post after the Paris attacks I have gotten calls from all over the world asking “How Can I Help” what you are doing to informed the public. We are watching a political display by the countries of the world even from those who are taking the fight to ISIS.

One example of that is France with the French President talking a hard line and taking action against ISIS but not willing to look at the real problem within his own country. That problem is allowing people to migrate to France without being integrated into the French population and live in segregated communities.

This happens so much with the left leaning governments, or the political correct ones, let the strangers in but keep them away from me. The results in France and across Europe is millions living in poverty stricken ghettos without jobs or hope. Instead of buying into the French cultural, language and way of life out of desperation they attempt to bring their own cultural into France.  The battle then begins.

These ghettos become havens for the recruitment of young people without hope leaving an older generation in the ghettos with no interest in helping the police prevent or investigative crime. In fact these ghettos are so bad that the police try to avoid them and when they have to go in they go with massive force and leave a disaster behind them. It has been a revolving circle for years and if it is not changed it will lead to a crumbling of the fabric of the societies of Europe, particular France.

To attack this problem action has to first be taken to stop the influx of immigrants until controls are in place. That is the same with our immigration problem here. Since there hasn’t been the political will by either party to fix the border and stop the influx we will not be able to change the immigration rules so we know who is entering the country.

So like Europe we keeping sliding down the hill toward the abyss where we will see our own society crumble. What can we really do when whatever changes are will be pain for all of us. Most of us are demanding something be done “but don’t let it affect me”.  That attitude has kept the politicians from doing their job since they react to what their voters want.  We won’t see change or hope for a future for our children and grand children until “we the people” are willing to sacrifice in the short term for long term stability.

What could that short term sacrifice look like. One thing might belt tighten with our expenses and cutting back on things as the country gets back in control of the debt and cuts expenses. Another might be the elimination of some programs that are not working or too costly. Another might be the eliminations of government jobs in the areas where there is over lapping or excess. The list could go on.

Why this is not done is because we don’t really think our way of life will chance even after the 08-09 melt down. Our memories are so short as we see some of the same reasons for that melt down starting back again. The worst has been the government, with the current administration bent on moving to a more socialist  form of government, touting the European model. They fail to tell us, as my friends in Europe do, that it has been a disaster for Europe and why so many want to come to America.

My friends in Europe say what is wrong with you Americans, your country is the last hope for being able to have a future and you are throwing it away. LEARN FROM US AND STOP THE MADNESS WHILE YOU CAN. Learning from the mistakes of others is one of the hardest things to do and we are guilty as charged.

What is learning from the past? It is looking at past problems and seeing how they were solved or if the solutions make the problem worst.  If we see solution that failed and we are thinking of trying them again stop, don’t try something that has been tried and doesn’t work.

If anyone does a surface look at the world we are living in now, from 40 years ago we can see the decline of the fabric of our country and world. It is history being relived as we see the moral decay and the political left think they know more then God and that they are smarter than those who lived centuries ago. They are so much smarter they will make what has always failed in the past work this time.

PRIDE COMETH THEN THE FALL.

With all this is there hope? I believe there is but it is not with governments or politicians. You might ask how can I make a difference. That is a great question and let me give an example. Back in the early 80’s there was a move by the ACLU and the left to eliminate the intelligence gathering unit (PDID) from the Los Angeles Police Department. They used the same tact’s used before them and still used now. The police are spying on the public and we can’t trust them with preventive tools. The left is vocal and invaded city council meetings with speakers denouncing the unit. When I talked to a council member he said the only people coming in to talk about it are those who want to destroy the unit, where are you people who want to keep the unit for all of our security.

He was right so a few of us came together and formed a citizens committee and called press conferences and went to council meetings. How we make a difference was not just one but soon we were thousands around Los Angeles and at the end of the day we kept LAPS intelligence and it has over the years stopped numerous attacks on Los Angeles.  That model is the only answer for the situation we find ourselves in now.

As was done in Europe in the 80’s we need to do here. Send a message to our politicians either return to protecting the people by a strong military and preventive law enforcement nationally, or we will put people in office who will.  We must eliminating political correctness and politics as usual, call the current terrorism for what it is, Islamic terrorism. By taking all the steps necessary to stop this attack on our societies including closing our borders to illegal entry.

The message to Washington needs to be. Take these actions now and return to a constitutional rule of law and this includes from the president on down or we the people will clean house.

Look for ways in your community how you can get involved and be a help to informing others. Let me know what you are doing as we look to raise a national voice before the next election.

Until next time be safe.

Phil

 

 

DATE LINE: WE THE PEOPLE CAN STOP THE TERRORIST

DATE LINE: WE THE PEOPLE CAN STOP THE TERRORIST

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This photo is the cry of the French people enough is enough. They did in 1986 now is time for them an we the people in America to rise up and demand our politicians take the right actions and do it quickly.

THE ONLY HOPE TO STOP ISIL IS WE THE PEOPLE.  Learning from past history.

I am sadden at the death and destruction in Paris and at the same time alarmed that our president is on another planet from us. If this attack, with France on high alert, doesn’t tell us what the world is up against nothing will. France has very good intelligence and human assets to find out what is being planned and the fact that they didn’t know points to what the terrorist have learned about not being detected.

For those of us in the middle of the fight to stop terrorism and with some knowledge of history you have to shake your head in amazement at the President of the United States saying he will not change his approached to fighting the war with Islamist extremist. Further, even though police officials are testifying that we have no way to vet the refuges coming  in he intends to let them keep coming. Blood will run on our streets.

Another amazing thing to me is the lack of knowledge of the history of terrorism on the left and in main stream reporting about how this current terrorism is different than the terrorism of the 60s, 70s and 80’s in Europe. Since the reason for the current terrorism is different than measures to fight it has to be different then the past.

When I first became exposed to world terrorism in the 70s it was more regional and had the purpose of trying to pull down democratic governments and  establish totalitarian/communist governments. They were using the slogans of today, share the wealth, take the down the rich and power to the people. Just as today, those are just words,  when those using those slogans got in power the people were put into slavery to the government. But there was not a religious fervor/slant to the terrorism in fact they were non religious. That is the difference we face today.

As I have looked at the history of terrorism I see some patterns that have emerged. One of those is that at some point in developing their cause the terrorist go to for, they do something so evil and destructive that the citizens who were on the side lines and not involved finally said “enough” to their government. They demanded that the government taken concrete actions to destroy the terrorist and that is what happened in France in the 80’s.

Building in the 70’s blood was running deep on the streets of European cities with it being unsafe to carry on a normal life. For France it was 12 bombs in one day in 1986 that turned the tide. As we look at then and now one big difference was the terrorism of the 80’s, by leftist, was aimed more at property not people so the death toll was much less then the radical Islamic terrorist who aim at innocent people.

What do I mean by WE THE PEOPLE ARE THE ANSWER TO STOPPING ISIL?

The situation that I talked about from the 80’s in Europe was similar to now. The governments were more responsive to their own political views, then the people, so they followed their views which allowed terrorism to grow. We see that same situation now particular in the United States with our President unwilling to take action that will help to defeat the terrorist.

To bring changes in the U.S. will be difficult for the President ignores the laws, congress and the will of the people following his misguided world view in his arrogant style. It will take the American people from all sides of the political isle to bring pressure which will change policy and I am not sure the left has the will to stand up against the President. But we are at a cross road and if the democrats choose party over  keeping America safe we are in for a bloody future.

So much of our lives revolve around knowledge and understanding what is behind terrorism is one of the most important areas we need the right knowledge on. A few of those in the media are starting to talk about the religious/Zealots behind the current terrorism and the fact that we can’t just bomb them away.  It is very similar to when cancer takes over in a body and you get it in one area and it jumps to another. The same with fighting this current terrorism, we kill one leader and 15 more spring up.

We must understand that what we face is not a group of misguided people who with a little opportunity and for us to retreat from the Middle East  would suddenly make the world a safe place. In fact that would make it easier for they would get a bigger footprint of territory  and then they would come to our homeland to deal with us.  Appeasement and weakness does not work with terrorist.

Of course we must use military power to go after them but at the same time we must call it for what it is. evil from the pit of hell, and America must take a leadership role in bringing pressure to bear on moderate Muslim counties to take the lead in beating back this virus which also has them as targets.

Politics should be taken out of the fight for our survival and politicians should first learn what the problem really is and where it is coming from. Then they should consult with the best military and prevention minds empower them and get out of there way and let them do their jobs. Much more on this later.

Until next time be safe and pray for those in Paris who have lost family and friends.

Phil

 

DATE LINE: THE SYRIAN EXPANISON AND DANGERS

DATE LINE: THE SYRIAN EXPANISON AND DANGERS

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The photo of Syria shows the area of the country that is in the middle of the battle for the major cities and one that the Syrian government was losing.

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This photo is of Iranian forces arriving by the thousands to support the Syrian army with more to come.

 

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This photo is of the shadowy photo shy Major General Qassem Soleimani commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps or Qods Force in Syria briefing Iranian solders and Hezbollah fighters.

I had said in my last post a few days ago that with Russia in Syria the game had changed and would be changing fast, I just didn’t realize how fast. Now we have a force that will approach 200,000 between the Russians, Iranians and Cubans to join the fight with Syrian forces. If this keep up their won’t be any room for the terrorist or any what is called freedom fighters. But hold your seats China also wants in and has  approached Iran about ties and support. HOLD ON THE TUBULANCE IS GOING TO GET ROUGH.

I am saddened every time I think of Syria and its current situation. Not unlike Lebanon and its decline from the Paris of the Middle East. Damascus with all its centuries of history as well as other parts of thousand year old treasure being destroyed by the radicals. Lebanon could of been helped if we would have had a different foreign policy and with the case of Syria our current administration can assume full responsibility for the fall of Syria.

The current administration has backed out of any responsibility and probably made it nearly impossible for the next strong leader as President to turn it around without war. I watched from my time on the ground in the Middle East, starting in the 70’s, as we blundered when Hafez al Assad played chess with us wanting to be counted in the power structure of the Middle East. He was a master at the game and starting using the East as a chip thinking and hoping the west, Americans, would offer him some carrots to come into the West Camp.

It didn’t take a master at foreign policy to see what was going on particular if you spent some time on the ground listening and talking to the right people. I suspect not one of the so called experts on the region spent any time on the ground and if they did It was short. The kind of diplomacy needed was not learned from a degree or a book, it is like intelligence you need time on the ground getting an  understanding of the people, how they think and what they react to. The current administration like others show they don’t understand that this part of the world responds and follows someone with power who shows and is willing to use it if required.

Many are asking the question why now? Why did Putin respond to the long standing request from Syria and Iran to enter the battle. I think there are several reasons. First Russia needs the warm water port that they have had in Syria and if the government falls then they would be out. Putin will not give up the warm water port!!!

Secondly he saw the opportunity to move due to the weakness of the American Administration and the lack of back bone the Europeans have, ie their lack of response in Ukraine.  Yes, there were sanctions and I laugh when I hear Obama talking about how this had hurt them, when in reality it has been the decline in the price of oil that has caused their problems with their economy.

Thirdly he wants to be part of the decision making in world affairs and one thing he understands is that the world respond to a leader who is powerfully and does what he says. Putin has shown that not only he understands that principle but acts on it.

Russian dron shot down in turkey

This photos is of drone shot down by Turkey after it crossed into Turkey air space. It has the markings of being Russian. Soon after Russia set up a communication line to Turkey to try and head off more problems since  their jets have violated Turkey air space.

The skies in Syria are now crowed with Russian, American and Syrian jets as well as drones from all three as well as Iran. One little mistake when a Russian jet locks on an American or Turkish jet and they fire thinking they are going to be targeted. Russia fully understands the ramifications of that with both being a part of Nato.

Russia also under stands the dangers of an attack from Syria or Lebanon on Israel. Recently when Bebe Netanyahu went to Moscow with his foreign minister, military and intelligence team if Putin wasn’t sure before he was after that meeting. Bebe make it clear that any violation of Israeli air space or missile lock on would be met with quick and strong force.

Israel and Syria leaders are somewhat in the same position, their backs to the wall. Bashar had a couple of options, leave the country and look for a safe haven or make a pack with the devil. He choose the latter putting his future in the hands of Russia and Iran two really trust worthy partners. I have written early about the end game of both.

Bebe has the same dilemma with either waiting for a Nuke attack or preempting one by striking Iran with military force. The meeting with Putin brought Bebe some time because it is in Putin’s interest to not take on Israel at this time. Just as he knows Obama will back down he knows Bebe will strike hard and fast and Bebe went to Moscow to reinforce that.

Israel desperately needs a secularly Syria and for all the talk Bashar has had a hands off policy towards Israel and some of the reasons Israel had for attacking the plants in Syria were out of Bashar’s control. Notably there was no response from Syria when nuclear plant was taken out. With Putin giving assurance’s to Bebe that he would not allow the Syrian problem to spill over into Israel gives some breathing room for Israel to focus on Iran and its Nuke plans.

Unlike Obama and probably Putin, Bebe understands the historical as well as Bible history of the past and knows it is only a matter of time until Putin and friends turn their attention to Israel. None us know how long that can be, it could be years or it could be much shorter. I would suspect from what we are seeing happen, in days or weeks that in the pasted would have taken years, they might want to have their bags packed for quick unexpected response.

With China making moves to join Iran and Russia it not only shows how difficult getting the U.S. presence restored will be, but the big stickler in all of this is the debt we have to China. With both Russia and China making moves to corner all the Gold on the world market they can as well as buy up natural resources for the future we could have bigger problems. China is already makes moves with the Yen away from the dollar with Russia also pushing for the dollar not to be the world currency. Russia and China are working to weaken us and Obama has fallen right into their trap.

I am reminded of my friends in France who back in the 80’s told me that the only positive of having a socialist government who buried the country was that they would be kicked out in the next election and not get back in for as least 50 years. Time for that generation to die off.

Over the last months of the Obama term we will see Putin and Iran ramp up and go for the gold trying to get a bigger foot hold prior to the next election. Don’t be surprised at some of the moves they will make for when a nation is showing weakness as we are the wolves circle their prey.

This is not the time to give up but to keep the pressure on our elected officials, the White House is not going to change, those in congress who we put there. Work for the right candidates who are protectors of our Constitution and freedoms we all enjoy.

Until Next Time

Be Safe: Phil