Could we be on the brink of WORLD WAR 3 or is this just Saudi and Turkey letting the world, particular the United States know, they don’t like how the U.S. is operating in the middle east. Is the 350,000 soldiers, of over 20 nations, on the northern border of Saudi Arabia preparation for an invasion or a show of force?
Prince Mohammad and his Generals on Northern Front:
350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters are massing in northern Saudi Arabia for a military exercise that is being called “Northern Thunder”.
Having spent a lot of time on the ground in the Middle East, starting in the middle 70’s and the Arabian Gulf starting in 2002, I would have been able to use the past practices to give a pretty accurate estimate of what the intentions might be with Northern Thunder. Had this been prior to the current administration in Saudi Arabia, and for that matter in the United States, my assessment would have been “Saber Rattling” but things have changed in the Gulf.
With King Salman, his new policies and the appointment of his son Prince Mohammad as Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince you could say there is a New Sheriff in town.
The policies of the old Saudi Arabia is gone which was go slow and don’t get involved in conflicts look to the United States and let them do the fighting. I believe many things have changed to cause this new posture by Saudi and the least is not the United States pull back from global leadership. That pull back has been a big factor in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states losing faith and trust in the U.S. to be there to protect them so they need to prepare to protect themselves.
I have seen several signs of this and some from being on the ground in the region and others watching events. One big sign is the increased defense spending up over 3 times what it was and moving forward with building a defense industry in Saudi. Another big one is the United States movement toward Iran and the U.S. President making a very bad deal with Iran. This was the final straw for Saudi and with the new King and his son the young Mohammad the tactics changed and the gloves came off. With what we have seen in Yemen we cannot predict what the Saudi defense Minister might do.
A few years ago I would have said Northern Thunder is just an exercise but with current events and the young Defense Minister who no one really knows who he is or what he might do all bets are off.
Everyone is worried not the least Russia for if Northern Thunder should roll into Syria with a lightening move to sweep to Damascus and take out Bashar it will be war. Russia has made it clear that would be an act of war that they would have to defend Syria and then there is China who is moving in. China would more than likely come down on the side of Iran and Syria and we have Israel on the side line to the south.
This whole region is so complex it is hard to wrap your head around all of the possibilities. There is the big question where would the United States stand with the current President which is resistant to military force.
According to the official announcement, forces are being contributed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia and several other nations. This exercise will reportedly last for 18 days, and during that time the airspace over northern Saudi Arabia will be closed to air traffic. This will be the largest military exercise in the history of the region, and it comes amid rumors that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are preparing for a massive ground invasion of Syria.
(SPECULATION BY MANY)
If you were going to gather forces for an invasion, this is precisely how you would do it. Governments never come out and publicly admit that forces are moving into position for an invasion ahead of time, so “military exercises” are a common excuse that gets used for this sort of thing.
If these exercises are actually being used as an excuse to mass forces near the northern Saudi border, then we should expect an invasion to begin within the next couple of weeks. If it happens, we should expect to see the Saudi coalition storm through western Iraq and into Syria from the south, and it is likely that Turkey will come in from the north.
The goal would be to take out the Assad regime before Russia, Iran and Hezbollah could react. For the past couple of years, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have been funding the insurgency in Syria, and they were counting on those insurgents to be able to take down the Assad regime by themselves.
But then Russia, Iran and Hezbollah stepped forward to assist the Assad regime. Russian air support completely turned the tide of the war, and now the Sunni insurgents are on the brink of losing.
Aleppo was once the largest city in Syria, and Sunni insurgents have controlled it since 2012. But now relentless Russian airstrikes have made it possible for Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah ground forces to surround the city, and it is about to fall back into the hands of the Syrian government. If this happens, the war will essentially be over.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have invested massive amounts of time, money and effort into overthrowing Assad, and they aren’t about to walk away now.
If the war was to end right at this moment, a weakened Assad regime would remain in power, and Iran and Hezbollah would be the dominant powers in the country for years to come. And once Assad died, it would be inevitable that Iran and Hezbollah would attempt to transform Syria into a full-blown Shiite nation. This is something that Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to avoid at all costs.
But if Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies go in, they run the risk of a full-blown war with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Just consider some of the comments that we have seen in recent days.
Reacting to a potential troop deployment, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said Saturday, “Let no one think they can attack Syria or violate its sovereignty because I assure you any aggressor will return to their country in a wooden coffin.”
Pavel Krasheninnikov, a deputy of Russia’s State Duma, has warned Saudi Arabia that any military ground operation in Syria without Damascus’ consent would amount to a declaration of war, Press TV reported.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:
“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.
And in addition to all of the forces massing in northern Saudi Arabia it is being reported that the Saudis have sent troops and aircraft to a military base in Turkey…
The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, confirmed the deployment in a statement to the Yeni Safak newspaper on Saturday, days before a temporary ceasefire is due to come into force.
The hostility between Turkey and the Kurds goes back a long, long way. Turkey has been shelling the Kurds inside of Syria even though the Syrian Kurds are not threatening Turkey in any way right now, but Turkey is using the instability in the region as an excuse to lob artillery shells at a hated enemy.
Needless to say, the Russians are quite alarmed by all of this.
In fact, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is warning about what could happen.
Quote, “In the wake of Saudi Arabia’s proposal to send in ground troops on Thursday, the Russian Prime Minister claimed the move could spark a world war.
“A ground operation draws everyone taking part in it into a war,” he told theHandelsblatt newspaper.
“The Americans and our Arab partners must consider whether or not they want a permanent war.”
If Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies launch an invasion and make a mad dash to take out the Assad regime in Damascus, the Russians will inevitably respond.
And if tactical nuclear weapons are necessary to keep the invading forces out of Damascus, the Russians will not be shy about using them.
If Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies are going to conduct an invasion of Syria, the most likely time for this to happen will be by the end of this month during these military exercises.
(End of Speculation by many)
Whatever the reason for the military exercises and troop built up the region is a “powder keg” set to explode with all the world’s major powers in the game. My sources on the ground who are well connected say this is a time where they can’t make a good prediction for you can not use the past to predict the present or future.
Keep alert and be prepared.
Until next time be safe;
Phil
